China’s 2025 export licensing controls on rare earths and magnets made a plain point. Clean energy will not end geopolitics. It will move it into minerals, processing, equipment and standards. China added seven categories of medium and heavy rare earth-related items to export controls in April 2025, and later expanded the restrictions.
For India, the question is not whether green hydrogen can cut fossil fuel imports. It can. The harder question is whether India can do so without building a new dependence on imported electrolysers, critical minerals and clean energy technologies.
The US has placed clean hydrogen inside industrial policy through the Inflation Reduction Act, which provides a production credit based on the emissions intensity of hydrogen. The EU has put hydrogen inside its Green Deal and industrial decarbonisation plans. China already has nearly 60% of global electrolyser manufacturing capacity, according to the International Energy Agency.
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Green hydrogen India opportunity
India has started well. Its solar capacity touched 157.05 GW on May 31, 2026. The government says the country has crossed the 50% mark for cumulative installed power capacity from non-fossil sources in June last.
India also has a steady demand for hydrogen from refineries and fertiliser units. Steel, chemicals, shipping and heavy transport will add to this if decarbonisation costs begin to affect trade and investment decisions. A NITI Aayog report (2022) argued that green hydrogen could help industrial decarbonisation, ease energy independence and boost export competitiveness.
The Cabinet cleared the National Green Hydrogen Mission in January 2023 with ₹19,744 crore initial outlay. This included ₹17,490 crore for the Strategic Interventions for Green Hydrogen Transition, ₹1,466 crore for pilot projects, ₹400 crore for R&D and ₹388 crore for components. The mission seeks to make India a hub for production, use and export of green hydrogen.
But renewable power and domestic demand do not by themselves create leadership. Hydrogen is not just a fuel market. It is an equipment market, a minerals market, a standards market and a trade market.
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Critical minerals and hydrogen supply chains
Green hydrogen can reduce dependence on imported oil and gas. It can also create exposure to another set of suppliers. Electrolysers, fuel cells, power electronics, storage systems and allied clean energy equipment depend on supply chains that are still concentrated in a few countries.
India has seen this problem before in solar modules. A rapid expansion of capacity did not prevent dependence on imported cells, wafers and equipment. Hydrogen could repeat that pattern if domestic manufacturing stops at assembly.
The issue is sharper because China has already built scale in electrolysers, solar panels, batteries, rare earth processing and magnets. Its 2025 rare earth controls showed how quickly a clean energy input can become a trade weapon. A hydrogen policy that ignores minerals and equipment will only move India’s import dependence from crude oil tankers to factory gates in East Asia.
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National Green Hydrogen Mission
The National Green Hydrogen Mission gives India a policy base. Its support for domestic electrolyser manufacturing and green hydrogen production can help firms invest before demand is fully formed. Its hydrogen hubs and pilot projects in steel, shipping, mobility and other hard-to-abate sectors can connect production with real buyers rather than leave projects stranded.
That support must buy manufacturing depth. India needs capacity in stacks, balance-of-plant equipment, control systems, membranes, catalysts, storage and safety systems. Bids that produce only low-cost assembly will not create strategic autonomy.
Infrastructure will decide how much of the mission survives beyond announcements. Hydrogen needs renewable power, transmission, electrolysers, storage, pipelines or carriers, ports and industrial offtake. Water availability will also shape siting decisions. These are not separate issues. A cheap electrolyser is of little use if power, water, storage and buyers are not available in the same industrial geography.
Finance will be equally important. Green hydrogen projects carry technology risk, offtake risk and regulatory risk. Public support can lower the first cost. It cannot replace credible long-term demand from refineries, fertiliser, steel, ports and transport.
Hydrogen standards and strategic autonomy
India’s Green Hydrogen Certification Scheme gives the country a starting point on measurement, reporting and verification. MNRE’s framework links certification to renewable energy use and emissions accounting.
This matters because hydrogen trade will be shaped by standards as much as by price. Buyers in Europe, Japan and other markets will ask how the hydrogen was produced, how emissions were measured and whether the certificate is credible. Export ambitions will fail if Indian producers face certification systems written elsewhere.
India should use the G20, the International Solar Alliance and bilateral trade channels to press for standards that recognise the conditions of developing economies without weakening emissions accounting. This is not a procedural detail. It will influence market access for green ammonia, green steel and other hydrogen-linked products.
Australia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and several European countries are already investing in hydrogen infrastructure and export capacity. China’s manufacturing position adds another layer of competition. India cannot assume that late entry will be offset by ambition.
A hydrogen economy built on imported equipment and thin domestic capability would reduce one vulnerability and create another. India has renewable resources, industrial demand and a national mission. That is a start. The next stage must be built around manufacturing, minerals, infrastructure, finance and standards. Otherwise green hydrogen will improve India’s energy balance without improving its strategic position.
Dr Ketki Kaushik is Assistant Professor, Amity College of Commerce and Finance, Amity University, Greater Noida.