Critical minerals have become the new battleground for economic leverage and geopolitical power. At the centre of this tussle is China, which processes 87% of the world’s rare earth materials and dominates refining in several other categories — 58% in lithium, 68% in silicon — granting it outsize control over supply chains for electric vehicles, electronics, and defence industries. This dominance has grown more strategic amid global shifts towards green technologies, high-tech manufacturing, and digital infrastructure.
Now, a coordinated pushback is taking shape. India, the United States, Japan, and Australia — partners in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) — have launched a critical minerals initiative to secure alternative supply chains and reduce dependence on China. The Quad’s latest joint statement expressed deep concern about abrupt disruptions and the geopolitical risks of relying on a single supplier nation.
READ | Jal Jeevan Mission faces credibility crisis in rural India
From market dependence to national security
What was once a question of market access has now become one of national security. The use of trade restrictions and export bans by China — often in retaliation to tariffs or foreign policy disputes — has shown how critical minerals can become tools of economic coercion. China’s bureaucratic hurdles for foreign firms sourcing minerals have only amplified these concerns.
In India’s case, the vulnerability is significant. The country depends on China for over 40% of its supply in six key minerals: bismuth (85.6%), lithium (82%), silicon (76%), titanium (50.6%), tellurium (48.8%), and graphite (42.4%). Recognising this strategic gap, the Indian government launched a National Critical Minerals Mission in early 2024, backed by a ₹34,300 crore allocation through FY2030-31, to enhance exploration and domestic production.
The Quad’s collective strategy
The bloc’s new Critical Minerals Initiative aims to secure reliable and diversified supply chains, emphasising not only mining but also electronic waste recovery and refining. The group plans to coordinate closely with the private sector and mobilise investment for downstream capacity in processing and manufacturing.
Importantly, the group is also looking beyond its members. It plans to work with resource-rich emerging economies and developing countries to build local processing capacities and encourage domestic value addition — a strategy echoed in recent G7 contributions, which saw Japan pledge $25 million and another $25 million pooled from Canada, Germany, Italy, South Korea, and the UK.
Complementary strengths, shared interests
The Quad’s members bring complementary advantages to the table. Australia leads the world in lithium mining (37% of global output) and has the largest reserves of zinc (28%), along with substantial deposits of gallium and germanium — both vital for semiconductors. Japan, while resource-poor, excels in mineral processing, with advanced capabilities in refining lithium, cobalt, and rare earths.
The United States, once a global leader in critical minerals, is now rebuilding domestic capacity through executive orders that fast-track mining approvals and unlock funding. Meanwhile, India is expanding its downstream manufacturing ecosystem in semiconductors and batteries, though its refining capabilities remain modest.
Trade relations between these countries also provide a foundation for deeper cooperation. Australia and India are linked through the Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA); Japan and Australia through their Economic Partnership Agreement; and India and Japan via their Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. All four are members of the Minerals Security Partnership — a multilateral effort to secure critical mineral value chains.
Toward a resilient mineral future
The American Foreign Service Association (AFSA) recently observed that the Quad nations are uniquely positioned to reshape global mineral supply chains, comparing their roles to fitting pieces of a jigsaw puzzle. The analogy is apt — Australia excels in extraction, Japan in refining, the US in manufacturing, and India in scaling market demand.
The challenge lies in translating intent into execution. The Quad is exploring initiatives to invest jointly in African mining projects — particularly for cobalt — and to develop lithium processing facilities within the alliance. A proposal for a Quad Minerals Security Pact, combining regulatory coordination and investment mobilisation, is also under discussion.
While no single country can rival China’s dominance in the short term, the Quad’s collective push signals the beginning of a more decentralised, resilient, and ethically aligned supply chain. Whether Beijing recalibrates its strategy or doubles down on its control remains to be seen. Either way, the world is watching.