The Himalayan glaciers, often described as the ‘third pole’, are retreating at a pace that should unsettle every policymaker in South Asia. Nepal has already lost nearly one-third of its ice in just three decades, and that melting is accelerating — 65 per cent faster in the last decade compared with the previous one. The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development goes further, projecting that the Himalayas could lose up to 80 per cent of their glaciers by the end of this century if global warming continues unchecked.
The crisis is not confined to remote mountain valleys. Nearly two billion people in South Asia depend, directly or indirectly, on rivers fed by Himalayan glaciers. These frozen reserves regulate the monsoon, recharge aquifers, power hydroelectric plants, and sustain agriculture. Their retreat threatens to unravel an entire socio-economic fabric woven over centuries.
READ | UGC mathematics curriculum risks diluting rigour, employability
Water security at risk
The Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Indus — the lifelines of South Asia — derive much of their dry-season flow from Himalayan glaciers. A reduction in glacial volume will make these rivers unpredictable. Initially, accelerated melting may cause flooding and erosion, but over time the flows will decline, leading to water scarcity across vast agricultural belts.
The World Bank has already identified South Asia as one of the world’s most water-stressed regions. For India, where per capita water availability has fallen by over 70 per cent since Independence, shrinking Himalayan glaciers will compound the crisis. For Pakistan, where 90 per cent of agriculture depends on irrigation from the Indus basin, the consequences are existential. Bangladesh, at the receiving end of Himalayan-fed rivers, faces the twin threats of declining flows and saltwater intrusion.
Himalayan glaciers and agriculture
Agriculture, which still employs nearly half of South Asia’s workforce, consumes more than four-fifths of available freshwater. The disruption of glacial melt will disturb irrigation schedules and crop cycles. The Geological Survey of India has highlighted the role of the Himalayas in channelling western disturbances that bring winter rains to north-western India. These rains sustain wheat, mustard, and horticultural crops. A weakened or erratic pattern will hit food production directly.
Moreover, the retreat of glaciers will alter the timing and intensity of the monsoon. Farmers may confront prolonged dry spells punctuated by sudden cloudbursts and flash floods. Already, the region has seen an alarming rise in glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) reports that more than a quarter of Himalayan glacial lakes have expanded since 1984, with 130 in India alone. Historically, 70 per cent of GLOF events in the region have occurred in just the last 50 years. These floods can destroy fields, roads, and irrigation canals, devastating rural livelihoods.
Livelihoods, migration, and human security
The impact is not limited to agriculture. Changing river flows will undermine fisheries, reduce potable water, and destabilise local industries. Power supply will fluctuate as hydropower dams confront erratic water levels and sudden floods. Economic instability will follow, with shortages driving food inflation and hunger.
At the Sagarmatha Sambaad in Kathmandu earlier this year, UNICEF Nepal drew attention to a neglected dimension: the impact on children. The climate crisis is also a child rights crisis, undermining health, nutrition, and education. Malnourishment, water-borne diseases, and disrupted schooling will define childhoods in vulnerable communities.
As livelihoods erode, migration will intensify. The World Bank has estimated that South Asia could see up to 40 million internal climate migrants by 2050. In the deltas of Bangladesh and eastern India, declining freshwater flows will allow seawater intrusion, rendering farmlands barren. Such changes will drive people away from ancestral homes, creating waves of displacement and, inevitably, political tensions.
Energy and infrastructure under threat
South Asia’s embrace of hydropower as a “clean energy” solution rests on the assumption of stable glacial melt. But as glaciers retreat, the very foundation of these projects is being shaken. Short-term flooding threatens dam safety, while long-term water scarcity reduces generation capacity.
Bhutan, which exports hydropower to India, faces the prospect of reduced revenues. Nepal’s ambitious hydropower projects may see rising costs due to erratic flows. India, too, has billions of dollars invested in hydroelectric infrastructure across the Himalayan belt. The retreat of glaciers places all of this at risk.
Equally vulnerable are downstream cities and industrial clusters. Flash floods, such as the Kedarnath disaster of 2013, are stark reminders of how infrastructure in fragile mountain zones can be obliterated in hours. With glaciers receding, such extreme events are no longer rare outliers—they are becoming a recurring feature.
The warming Himalayas
Scientific evidence leaves little room for complacency. The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report confirms that the Hindu Kush Himalaya has warmed at nearly twice the global average. Rising temperatures are pushing glacier retreat to elevations above 5,500 metres, areas once thought immune to melt.
Suhora Technologies, an Indian Earth observation firm, has shown how glacial lakes are spreading at higher altitudes. These lakes are ticking time bombs, capable of unleashing floods with little warning. The Himalayan ecosystem, with its role in regulating monsoons, storing freshwater, and anchoring biodiversity, is moving perilously close to a tipping point.
The loss of glaciers will also have implications far beyond South Asia. The Himalayas influence atmospheric circulation patterns that affect rainfall as far away as East Asia and the Middle East. A destabilised Himalayan system will not respect national boundaries.
Unfolding human tragedy
The retreat of the glaciers is not an abstract, far-off threat. It is already visible in erratic rainfall, expanding deserts, rising food prices, and frequent floods. It is visible in the anxiety of farmers whose irrigation schedules no longer match the rhythms of nature. It is visible in the children of Nepal, who demanded at the Everest Dialogue that they be recognised as stakeholders in decisions that shape their future.
If Himalayan glaciers vanish, the loss will not be of ice alone. It will be of rivers, farms, cities, and lives across South Asia. The region’s history, culture, and economy have been shaped by these mountains. Their disappearance will mark not just an environmental disaster, but a civilisational rupture.
South Asia stands at a moment of reckoning. Scientific reports, satellite data, and lived experiences are converging to tell the same story: the Himalayas are melting, faster than anticipated, and the consequences will be severe.
The world has ignored climate warnings before—choosing growth today over survival tomorrow. But the retreat of Himalayan glaciers is not a problem for future generations. It is here, now, shaping water flows, altering monsoons, displacing families, and raising the spectre of scarcity.
Two billion people cannot be insulated from the vanishing of the Third Pole. If the glaciers disappear, South Asia will face an upheaval unprecedented in its history—one measured not in centuries, but in decades. The warning signs are clear; the tragedy, unless addressed, will be irreversible.