For the first time in its modern history, the US faces a formidable rival — a China that is fast outpacing it. For years, the US has out-produced and out-innovated other rivals such as Germany, Japan (pre-World War II), and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991, the US emerged as the supreme superpower. Not surprisingly, the global system was designated as being ‘unipolar’.
That is no longer the case.
Policy makers in the US are divided over how to regain its lost primacy. Current policies under Trump 2.0 are confusing friends and foes alike, even as they are escalating the restructuring of international relations.
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China’s emergence
Enter China — there’s enough data to show why the US calls it a ‘pacing threat’.
Though the GDP of America is higher than China’s, according to IMF projections for 2025, China’s Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is 1.33 times that of the US. Despite its significantly lower GDP than that of the US, its annual rate of growth is much higher than that of the US.
Chinese manufacturing output in 2024 stood much higher at 27.7 percent of the global share ,than the US’s 17.3 percent. The US Federal Reserve says that over the past two decades, China has become a manufacturing powerhouse. Its global trade volume surpasses the US, the country has the largest trade surplus, and it is the largest trade partner for over a 100 countries.
Towards a multipolar world
It is not just the economy, though.
According to the US Department of Defense, the Chinese navy is the largest in the world with over 370 platforms, with its mine warfare, aircraft carriers and fleet auxiliaries outcompeting the US. The Chinese Airforce and unmanned aerial systems are comparable to the American Air Force.
China is ahead of the US in the technology race in 37 out of 44 key areas, and possesses monopoly in several fields.
Its strategic partnership with Russia is viewed by the US as a major threat — Trump 2.0 sees multilateral forums such as BRICS as challenging US dominance.
American policy makers and strategic elite are divided on how to deal with this, leading to a slew of often contradictory statements and policies. The chaos has evoked responses from nations that appear to favour China, Russia and the multipolar restructuring already in process.
A section of US policy makers argue that the US is militarily overstretched across the world with far too many commitments and wars. It is taking too much of the burden of the Ukraine war, and it is time to share it. This approach advocates that the US turn to isolationism. Advocates of this position are Donald Trump, his Vice President J.D. Vance, the America First/ Make America Great Again (MAGA) Republican lobby, and the Republican base as well as others who oppose the US’s interventionist wars.
The opposing position comes from the neo-cons or neo conservatives who had influenced former President Joe Biden’s policy towards China and multipolarity. Many in Trump’s current cabinet also share this position — Marco Rubio and Elbridge Colby, for instance. Think tanks such as the Heritage Foundation, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, RAND Corporation, the Atlantic Council and others are also proponents of this argument.
This faction calls for strengthening NATO, increasing alliances in the Indo-Pacific, continuing support for the Ukraine war, economic coercive measures against countries that do not conform with US strategic interests, and opposing authoritarian states. In other words, containment of China, support for Ukraine, and restraints on BRICS and other anti-West forums.
Shifting goalposts
President Trump appears to be using both strategies — essentially shifting from one to the other.
Thus, he has levied tariffs on a hundred countries, many of whom view this as hostile economic pressure. Each of these countries have been negotiating with the US but are also diversifying their trade and value chains to save themselves from erratic behavior of the US.
Trump and Vance have warned NATO European countries that they have to increase their defense expenditure and can buy weapons from the US to sustain the war in Ukraine as it gradually eases itself out. The US President has engaged in direct talks with President Putin in Alaska and his trusted friend Steve Witcoff negotiates with the Russians. At the same time, they have also promised more missiles for Ukraine.
America’s backing of the genocidal policies of Israel, and its own bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities, support for Israel’s bombing in Doha, Qatar, which is a major US ally in the region and hosts one the biggest airbases in the region, show that the US is not getting ‘isolationist’ by any stretch.
At the same time, US allies in the Middle East/West Asia are now exposed to its irrationality, its backing for Israel in expanding its territories, seeking control of West Asian airspace, desiring regional hegemony and claiming that it is ‘re-structuring’ the Middle East. These West Asian allies will look for long term alternatives in the times ahead.
President Trump’s negotiated deals with Japan, South Korea and EU countries have meant that these countries have had to commit to big investments in the US. South Korea, for example, will re-build the US shipping industry. The EU countries will buy US gas and help industrialise the US at their own cost.
All this sounds like a restructured US imperialism that extracts surplus from clients in exchange for protection. However, the clients are beginning to question these forced investments that sound like tithes. Further, unlike when the US held unipolar power, times have changed and other options are available.
That option is China, and the BRICS countries that are busy constructing a non-militarised multipolarity. They are encouraging global trade on a fair basis without the pressure, and the embargoes.
Anuradha Chenoy is Adjunct Professor, O. P. Jindal Global University, Sonipat Haryana, India. Originally published under Creative Commons by 360info
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