The fallout from the Trump administration’s H-1B visa restrictions is now visible across global finance. US banks that long relied on Indian professionals in New York and Chicago are stepping up hiring in Bengaluru, Mumbai and Hyderabad. Firms such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and KKR are adding staff in India because it has become harder — and far more expensive — to bring skilled workers into the US. What were once back-office centres have begun handling credit analysis, covenant reviews and risk functions. This is more than a tactical shift; it marks a broader rewiring of global financial operations.
The proposed $100,000 fee per H-1B visa forced American companies to reconsider their labour strategies. Unpredictable approvals, higher compliance costs and political scrutiny have made local hiring less attractive. As a result, global banks are expanding their Indian operations rather than waiting for policy clarity in Washington. A recent Bloomberg report noted that JPMorgan is hiring covenant-monitoring specialists in Bengaluru, while Goldman Sachs is strengthening its loan-review teams in India. The salary gap sharpens the incentive. An entry-level analyst in India earns roughly ₹3–8 lakh a year, while an equivalent role in the US costs at least $60,000. What began as a cost-saving exercise has now become a capability shift.
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The scale of the GCC story
India today hosts close to 1,700–1,800 global capability centres. They generate about $65 billion in economic value and employ well over a million people. By 2030, analysts expect the number of GCCs to touch 2,400, with employment crossing two million and annual output exceeding $110 billion. Financial firms are driving a significant share of this expansion. The six largest US banks employ around 150,000 staff in global centres, and India has become the most important hub. This dominance rests partly on the country’s deep STEM talent pool, which accounts for three-quarters of all H-1B approvals. As finance becomes more analytical, India’s advantage in data-driven skills has widened.
The shift to India should not be seen as permanent. The proposed $100,000 H-1B fee is already under legal challenge from business groups, including the US Chamber of Commerce, which argue that the administration has exceeded its authority. The HIRE Act, which seeks a 25% outsourcing tax, is still an early stage congressional bill and may not survive intact. Washington’s policy environment is fluid, and the next turn in politics could redirect work towards Canada, Mexico or Eastern Europe. India’s opportunity is real, but it is neither assured nor open-ended.
AI is the third disruptor in global finance jobs
Visa rules and labour arbitrage explain only part of the shift. The larger force in the background is artificial intelligence. Many of the roles moving to Indian GCCs — analytics, documentation reviews, portfolio modelling and compliance checks — are precisely the functions most exposed to automation.
Banks are already experimenting with AI-based credit scoring, automated document reading and real-time risk calculations. If productivity rises sharply, the offshoring window could narrow as automation takes over repetitive portions of these workflows. India must therefore treat this moment as a race against time: it needs to build capabilities that AI cannot easily replace.
India’s domestic policy gaps: Skills, regulation and infrastructure
India’s ability to hold onto this opportunity will depend on the strength of its domestic ecosystem. The country needs a more specialised skills pipeline in quantitative finance, credit risk, cybersecurity and ESG-linked financial services. Industry backed certifications and university partnerships must expand swiftly if India wants to anchor higher-value work. Regulation matters too.
Sensitive financial operations require trust in data protection frameworks and cybersecurity norms. India’s evolving rules will influence how much strategic work global banks are willing to locate here. Infrastructure is another constraint. Bengaluru, Mumbai and Hyderabad already struggle with housing shortages, transport bottlenecks and uneven public services. If these pressures intensify, India could lose ground to Manila, Krakow or Guadalajara.
H-1B visa squeeze: A strategic opening with challenges
India’s scale gives it an edge, but the competition is not idle. Countries such as Poland, Ireland, Mexico, Vietnam and the Philippines are offering incentives, modern infrastructure and large graduate pools to attract global banks. India’s strengths are its STEM depth and English-speaking workforce. Its weaknesses are infrastructure, regulatory unpredictability and the concentration of talent in a handful of overstretched cities. Big banks are already spreading work across multiple geographies to hedge against political and operational risk.
The GCC boom creates high-quality jobs, but mostly for urban, English-speaking, upper-middle-class workers. Regional imbalances remain large, and women’s representation in high-end finance roles is improving but still limited. For the gains to be broad-based, India will need to widen access to training and professional pathways beyond elite institutions and Tier-1 cities. Without this, the sector risks deepening existing inequalities.
India must treat the current flow of high-value finance roles as a strategic opening rather than a windfall. Cost arbitrage may have helped attract work, but it will not sustain it. The larger opportunity lies in becoming a trusted partner in global finance, capable of handling sensitive, high-judgment tasks. That requires deeper skills, stronger institutions and more liveable cities.
Protectionist measures in the US may encourage firms to globalise further, but the direction can reverse quickly. The next decade will determine whether Indian GCCs remain cogs in a global cost engine or evolve into collaborators in global financial innovation. India must build for the latter.