It is no longer a matter of speculation: climate change is already reshaping lives in India. With its vast geography and dense population, India stands among the most climate-vulnerable regions in the world. A recent study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water reveals the scale of the crisis — nearly three out of four Indians now face the risk of extreme heat. Alarmingly, 57% of India’s districts fall into high-risk categories, affecting nearly 76% of the population.
The vulnerable zones span across major regions including Delhi, Maharashtra, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Goa, and Andhra Pradesh. Using 35 heat risk indicators, CEEW analysed trends from 1982 to 2022 across 734 districts, revealing how swiftly climate stress has intensified.
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Urbanisation, humidity, and the heat trap
The sharpest increases in heat risk have emerged in rapidly urbanising Tier-II and Tier-III cities like Pune, Thoothukudi, and Gurugram. These urban centres are now experiencing warmer nights — a phenomenon driven by expanding concrete infrastructure that traps daytime heat and releases it after sundown. As a result, nights are no longer a respite, especially for outdoor workers such as labourers and agricultural hands. The report finds that night temperatures are rising faster than daytime peaks, increasing the risk of heat stress-related health problems.
Regions such as Delhi, Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, Bhopal, and Bhubaneswar are grappling with dangerous combinations of extreme daytime heat, high humidity, and soaring nighttime temperatures. This compromises the body’s ability to cool down, significantly raising heat-related health risks.
Meanwhile, relative humidity has also surged, especially across the Indo-Gangetic plains, where it has risen by up to 10% over the last decade. While coastal India is typically humid (60–70%), North India — which once recorded 30–40% humidity — now sees levels at 40–50%, compounding the discomfort and danger of high heat.
Even the 116 districts identified as ‘low-risk’ are not immune. Their classification is merely relative — these areas may experience fewer extreme events, but the margin of safety is narrowing quickly. Heat stress is no longer a future threat; it is a lived and worsening reality.
The line is stark: India is entering an era of intense, prolonged heat, rising humidity, and dangerously warm nights.
What the ozone layer teaches us
For many, the threat of ozone depletion — once a central topic of environmental concern — has faded from memory. But it remains one of the few examples of collective global environmental success. The implementation of the Montreal Protocol curbed the use of ozone-depleting substances (ODS), leading to steady recovery of the ozone layer. The problem wasn’t dismissed; it was resolved through decisive, science-based global cooperation.
This achievement proves that concerted international action can overcome global ecological crises — a lesson highly relevant to today’s climate challenge. Yet, the parallels end there.
Climate change is a harder nut to crack
While the ozone crisis was focused and relatively easy to isolate — involving specific chemicals and sectors — climate change is embedded in the DNA of industrial society. From energy production and transport to food systems and housing, virtually every economic sector contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. The path to decarbonisation requires a fundamental reordering of global economic structures.
Despite the urgency, efforts remain insufficient. The Paris Agreement, while symbolically significant, has shifted from enforceable commitments to voluntary Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which fall far short of keeping global warming below 1.5°C.
In 2024, India experienced its hottest year on record, with temperatures averaging 1.2°C above the 1901–1910 baseline. Globally, the average surpassed 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels, marking a worrying milestone.
Heat action plans fall short
India has adopted Heat Action Plans (HAPs) in various cities to provide early warnings and reduce the human toll of heatwaves. However, these plans are either non-existent, poorly implemented, or lack long-term vision, according to a March 2024 study by the Sustainable Futures Collaborative.
Cities that do have HAPs are often limited to short-term emergency measures — public advisories and water distribution — and neglect the broader challenge of building resilience against recurring and intensifying heat events. Without course correction, India risks facing a sharp rise in heat-related mortality, especially among the poor and outdoor workers.
A call for future-proof action
India must now treat heat stress not as a seasonal inconvenience, but as a central threat to public health, economic productivity, and urban sustainability. This calls for a strategic overhaul of city-level Heat Action Plans (HAPs), many of which are currently limited to reactive, short-term measures such as public alerts and water distribution. These may offer temporary relief, but they are no match for the scale and permanence of the heat crisis unfolding across the country.
First, localised risk assessments must become the backbone of planning. Each city and district faces unique climate stressors — from Delhi’s heat-retaining concrete jungles to the humidity traps of Bhubaneswar and Bhopal. Heat response plans need to be tailored to reflect these local vulnerabilities rather than adopt a one-size-fits-all model. Municipal authorities must be equipped with granular data on land use, population density, health infrastructure, and housing quality to design region-specific interventions.
Second, India must urgently invest in sustainable cooling infrastructure that goes beyond air conditioning. Passive cooling solutions — such as cool roofs, ventilated housing, shaded public spaces, and urban greening — offer cost-effective ways to reduce ambient temperatures, especially in low-income neighbourhoods. Retrofitting existing urban infrastructure to lower the urban heat island effect should be a national priority.
Third, securing dedicated and predictable financing is essential to make heat resilience a core part of urban development. This means integrating climate adaptation funding into smart city budgets, municipal bonds, and public-private partnerships. State governments and city corporations must also build institutional capacity to absorb and deploy these funds efficiently.
Finally, heat resilience must be embedded into broader urban planning frameworks. Master plans for cities, transport corridors, and housing projects must account for rising heat risks over the next 20 to 30 years. Even employment guarantee schemes like MGNREGS must be adapted to account for seasonal heat exposure by offering flexible hours or heat-safe work environments.
Without a paradigm shift that balances emergency relief with long-term resilience, India risks facing recurring humanitarian crises in its cities and towns. The heat is no longer just a weather event — it is a structural challenge. What India needs is not just a plan, but a future-proof climate blueprint that can keep pace with the warming world it inhabits.
A piecemeal approach will no longer suffice. As climate change morphs into a crisis of survival, India needs a coherent, urgent, and irreversible plan to build heat-resilient futures.