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Remittances growth cushion India’s external account

Remittances growth

FY27 remittances growth may slow after precautionary transfers, but the inflow base is wider than a decade ago.

Remittances growth: Foreign capital into India has been uneven this year. One large external receipt has held. RBI preliminary data show net transfers, largely remittances, rose to $16 billion in April 2026 from $9.4 billion a year earlier. Net services exports were $18.6 billion. Together, these helped India post a current account surplus of $4.7 billion in April, despite a merchandise trade deficit of $27.9 billion and net FPI outflows of $8.7 billion.

That number matters because remittances were expected to weaken when West Asia turned unstable. Millions of Indian families still depend on money sent by workers abroad, especially from the Gulf. Every episode of regional conflict revives an old fear: job losses, delayed wages, forced returns and lower transfers.

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The immediate evidence points the other way. During periods of uncertainty, migrant workers often send more money home. Families need cash buffers. Workers also lock in the advantage of a weaker rupee. The rupee value of every dollar or dirham sent home rises, and that can bring forward remittances that would otherwise have arrived later.

India remittances no longer depend on the Gulf alone

The Gulf still matters. The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman remain large employers of Indian workers in construction, services, transport, healthcare and oil-linked activity. But India’s remittance base is no longer a Gulf story.

RBI’s remittance survey for 2023-24 showed the United States as the largest source, with a 27.7% share. The UAE was second at 19.2%. The UK, Singapore, Canada and Australia have gained weight as Indian migration has shifted towards higher-skilled work in advanced economies.

This change is visible in the nature of work. Indian migrants in the US and the UK are more likely to be in technology, healthcare, finance and professional services. Their incomes are higher than those of earlier cohorts of semi-skilled migrants. They also remit through formal banking and digital channels, which makes the flows easier to record.

The Gulf’s share has fallen. RBI Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said in May that West Asia’s share in India’s migrant pool had declined to around 40%, while the latest RBI survey put the Gulf countries’ share of remittances at 38% in 2023-24, down from 47% in 2016-17.

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India remittances growth and the external account

The official numbers need some care. Workers’ remittances reached $110.47 billion in 2025-26, up from $87.55 billion in 2024-25. The wider private transfers category, which includes withdrawals from non-resident deposits, personal gifts and other flows, rose to $151.71 billion. Net transfers were $144.07 billion.

This distinction is useful. The larger number captures more than wages sent by migrants to households. Even so, the macroeconomic point remains: these inflows have become a steady support to India’s balance of payments.

The Economic Survey 2025-26 put remittance inflows at $135.4 billion in FY25 and said India remained the world’s largest recipient. It also noted the rising share of inflows from advanced economies. The World Bank had estimated India’s remittances at $129 billion in 2024, ahead of Mexico and China.

The April 2026 balance of payments data show why this matters. Portfolio capital can leave quickly. Banking capital can reverse. Remittances move with migrant incomes, family obligations and exchange rates. They are less dramatic than FPI, but often more useful in a difficult month.

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Remittances outlook for FY27

The recent surge should not be read as a new trend line. Part of it may be precautionary. Some workers may have advanced transfers because of the West Asia conflict. Some may have sent more because the rupee gave their families a better conversion rate.

If tensions ease, monthly growth could slow. That would not mean weakness. It would mean the front-loaded money has already come in.

The Gulf economies have not shut their doors to Indian labour. If reconstruction work picks up in parts of West Asia, demand for migrant workers could even rise. The bigger protection, however, lies outside the Gulf. India now earns remittances from a wider map and from better-paid workers.

For India’s external account, this is a rare source of comfort. Remittances cannot replace investment, exports or better trade competitiveness. They do buy time when capital flows turn nervous.

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