For a country heavily dependent on imported energy, India’s latest push to strengthen domestic oil and gas exploration is overdue. Union petroleum and natural gas minister Hardeep Singh Puri has said India plans to invest more than $20 billion in offshore data acquisition under the Samudra Manthan programme. The objective is to expand seismic surveys and subsurface data collection across India’s sedimentary basins, and make exploration less speculative for investors.
The case for action is clear. India’s crude oil production has declined for 11 consecutive years, while natural gas output has fallen for two years. Import dependence stood at about 89% for crude oil and 51% for natural gas in 2025-26.
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This is not a marginal vulnerability. West Asia’s instability has again shown how exposed India remains to supply shocks, freight disruptions and price spikes. The issue is not only the size of the import bill. It is also the strategic risk of relying on external supplies for a fuel system that still powers transport, industry, fertilisers, petrochemicals and household consumption.
India’s upstream problem is not new. Ageing fields dominate output. Major discoveries have been scarce. Domestic and foreign investors have been cautious because exploration risk remains high. Inadequate geological information has been one of the sector’s enduring weaknesses.
Samudra Manthan and offshore exploration data
Samudra Manthan seeks to address this weakness at source. Better seismic data can narrow prospective zones, reduce dry-well risk and lower the cost of early-stage exploration. It will not guarantee discoveries, but it can make bidding more informed and investment decisions less blind.
India’s sedimentary basins cover about 3.36 million sq km. Much of this area remains underexplored compared with major hydrocarbon provinces elsewhere. Deepwater and ultra-deepwater regions have produced large discoveries in Brazil and West Africa. India has not yet converted similar geological possibilities into sustained investor commitments.
The proposed investment in offshore data acquisition is therefore more than a technical exercise. It is an attempt to build a public information base for private and public investment. The Directorate General of Hydrocarbons will be central to this effort. Its National Data Repository is meant to centralise geological information and make it accessible to investors. Samudra Manthan can increase its value if data quality, access rules and bidding processes are credible.
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Hydrocarbon policy reform must deliver
The government has already tried to improve India’s exploration framework. The Oilfields (Regulation and Development) Amendment Bill, 2024 was passed by Parliament in 2025 to modernise the legal framework and attract investment into exploration and production. Petroleum and Natural Gas Rules, 2025 followed as part of the regulatory overhaul.
Other changes include revenue-sharing contracts, simpler licensing and the opening of large areas earlier kept outside exploration. These steps were meant to improve investor confidence. Their results have so far been limited.
That history matters. India has tried before to revive exploration through the New Exploration Licensing Policy and the Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy. The outcomes were mixed. Bureaucratic delays, contractual disputes and pricing uncertainty weakened investor interest.
The real test will come after the data is acquired. Seismic surveys must feed into credible OALP bidding rounds, faster exploration drilling, field development approvals, pipeline access and predictable pricing. India has changed laws and rules to attract upstream investment, but investors will still judge the sector by contract sanctity, approval timelines and commercial returns. Better geological data can reduce exploration risk. It cannot compensate for weak execution after a block is awarded.
The latest initiative targets one specific bottleneck: information asymmetry. If the state provides high-quality geological data upfront, private firms can assess risks better. Norway and the United Kingdom have used state-backed data acquisition to support exploration activity. India is now trying to adapt that lesson to its own basins.
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Domestic oil and gas cannot be wished into existence
There are limits to what better data can achieve. Offshore exploration is expensive, technologically demanding and slow. Even a promising discovery will depend on global oil and gas prices, domestic pricing rules, fiscal terms and infrastructure access.
India’s experience with deepwater gas has shown how difficult it is to balance investor returns with consumer affordability. Price controls may protect consumers in the short run, but they can also weaken investment incentives. Liberal terms may attract capital, but they will face political resistance if they raise fuel or fertiliser costs.
The real test will come after data acquisition. Seismic surveys must be followed by timely bidding, exploration drilling, field development approvals, pipeline and evacuation infrastructure, and predictable pricing. Without that chain, better data will remain a public asset with limited production impact.
Samudra Manthan should therefore be judged by outcomes, not announcements. India needs more domestic production, but it also needs a realistic view of what oil and gas exploration can deliver in an energy transition. Hydrocarbons will remain central to the economy for years. Reducing import vulnerability is sensible. Pretending that data alone can solve the upstream crisis is not.
For now, the programme gives India a chance to make exploration more credible. If executed well, it could improve the odds of finding new reserves and reduce exposure to external shocks. If execution falters, it will join a long list of policy initiatives that recognised the problem but failed to change the production curve.