India’s latest coal shortage episode has exposed the limits of measuring energy security by production and dispatch figures. A Business Standard report, citing Central Electricity Authority data, put the number of plants with critically low stocks at 98 on October 23. It reported total inventories of 19.7 million tonnes, sufficient for about 6.3 days against a normative requirement of roughly 19–20 days. Critical stocks do not establish that shutdowns are imminent, but they leave generators with little protection against delayed deliveries or higher consumption.
Coal will remain essential to India’s electricity supply for the foreseeable future. That makes dependable deliveries to power stations an immediate policy obligation. Rising output offers limited reassurance if fuel does not reach the plants that need it, when they need it.
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Gujarat illustrates how quickly demand can test supply arrangements beyond the traditional summer peak. According to a state government release reported by DD India, peak demand reached 29,822 MW on October 16, compared with 21,822 MW in October last year. The government attributed the increase to unusually warm conditions and greater irrigation requirements, alongside industrial demand ahead of Diwali.
Electricity shortages are local and time-specific. A system may have enough generating capacity on paper but struggle to supply a particular region during a particular hour because fuel, transmission capacity or available generation is insufficient. National supply figures can therefore obscure the pressure faced by individual utilities.
Coal deliveries must rebuild plant inventories
The government has evidence that coal movement is improving. In its October 12 update, the coal ministry said supplies to the power sector averaged 2.49 million tonnes a day during October 1–10, against 2.21 million tonnes in September. Average daily railway rake loading also increased. Nevertheless, stocks at domestic coal-based plants fell from 18.932 million tonnes on September 29 to 18.205 million tonnes on October 10. These figures cover a different period and category from the later stock assessment.
Slower depletion provides some relief, but sustained inventory rebuilding requires deliveries to exceed consumption. Higher dispatches can coexist with falling plant stocks when generators burn more fuel. Neither production growth nor increased railway loading, taken separately, establishes that power stations have adequate reserves.
Coal allocation should consequently reflect each plant’s stock position and expected generation requirements, with account taken of alternative supplies available to the state. Deliveries to vulnerable stations need daily monitoring, and supplies and railway rakes should be redirected where this can prevent a generation shortfall.
Production and movement must also be planned together. Increasing mine output will achieve little at a station whose deliveries are held up by railway congestion or inadequate unloading facilities. Where additional coal can be mined, the transport and receiving arrangements should be ready to handle it.
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Imports can provide a temporary cushion, subject to technical compatibility and cost. Their use is not confined to plants designed entirely for imported coal: domestic coal-based stations also import coal for blending. The appropriate blend depends on plant specifications. Procurement decisions must also account for international fuel prices and the effect on electricity tariffs.
States facing shortages can seek additional allocations from central generating stations or purchase electricity through short-term contracts and power exchanges. Such purchases may avert immediate disruption, although their availability and price will depend on conditions elsewhere in the system. They cannot replace adequate fuel stocks at plants already contracted to supply those states.
Coal shortage: Logistics policy needs a delivery test
The longer-term strategy must begin with a more realistic assessment of coal security. The government’s Coal Logistics Policy and Plan addresses the infrastructure required to move higher production. Its planning framework envisages coal output of 1.5 billion tonnes by FY2030, supported by greater mechanised loading and improved rail connectivity. It also identifies multimodal transport and additional wagon requirements.
These investments are necessary, but their success should be measured by reliable deliveries to consumers. A completed railway line or loading project should reduce delays and help power stations maintain their prescribed reserves. Project announcements and tonnes mined are inadequate measures of whether the electricity system can withstand an extended period of high demand.
Accountability must cover generators as well as suppliers. Plants that repeatedly fail to maintain required stocks need scrutiny, including whether procurement or payment failures contributed to the shortfall. Persistent delivery failures require the same examination. Aggregate supply figures should not conceal recurring weaknesses at individual stations.
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Evening demand requires more than solar capacity
Renewable energy can reduce coal consumption, but installed solar and wind capacity cannot be treated as equivalent to generation available whenever required. Gujarat’s government has identified the evening period, when solar output disappears and wind generation remains variable, as a particular supply challenge. It is seeking greater use of solar electricity during daylight hours.
Shifting agricultural electricity consumption towards solar hours can reduce pressure after sunset. Battery storage and pumped-storage hydropower can carry part of the daytime surplus into the evening. Their contribution, however, depends on usable storage capacity and discharge duration, as well as timely commissioning.
Coal plants will need to accommodate changes in renewable output. Better interstate transmission and more flexible demand can reduce the burden on thermal generation during periods of stress. Planning should establish how these resources will meet demand together, including when renewable output is weak.
Plan for prolonged demand, not seasonal averages
Coal-demand forecasts should be tested against unusually hot weather and disruptions during the monsoon. They should connect expected electricity consumption with mine output, railway availability and plant-level inventories. Historical seasonal patterns offer insufficient protection when high demand persists beyond the months for which utilities have prepared.
Maintaining larger reserves carries a financing and storage cost. That cost should be weighed against emergency electricity purchases and the losses caused by interrupted supply. Enforcing stock norms requires credible delivery arrangements and provision for the working capital tied up in fuel.
India cannot abruptly reduce its dependence on coal without risking electricity supply. It can, however, insist on a more demanding test of coal security. A power station expected to meet an evening demand surge must have fuel in its stockyard; an assurance of additional dispatches cannot generate the electricity its consumers require.